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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Unpacking the Concept of "Blackmail" - Less Wrong
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If it's not about the effect in the actual world, why is it relevant?
If I ask "What will happen if I don't attempt to increase my rationality" I'm reasoning about counterfactuals.
Is that not about cause and effect in the real world?
Counterfactuals ARE about the actual world. They're a way of analysing the chains of cause and effect.
If you can't reason about cause and effect (and with your inability to understand why precomitting can't bring the FSM into existence, I get the impression you're having trouble there) you need tools. Counterfactuals are a tool for reasoning about cause and effect.