Comment on A Thought on Pascal's Mugging

Sat, 11 Dec 2010 17:51:18 GMT

The reason I recommend David not play the inverse lottery isn't because all things that give small rewards for a small probability of great loss are bad, it's because the inverse lottery (like the regular lottery) is set up so that the expected utility of playing is lower than the expected utility of not playing. An inverse lottery in which the expected utility of playing is better than the expected utility of not playing would be a good bet.

A good argument for driving cars wouldn't be that an accident could never happen and is ridiculous (which is how I interpret David's pro-LHC argument) but that the benefits gained from driving cars outweigh the costs.

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