MichaelHoward comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: Will_Newsome 16 December 2010 03:23:08AM 20 points [-]

Note that someone just gave a confidence level of 10^4478296 to one and was wrong. This is the sort of thing that should never ever happen. This is possibly the most wrong anyone has ever been.

I was in some discussion at SIAI once and made an estimate that ended up being off by something like three hundred trillion orders of magnitude. (Something about giant look-up tables, but still.) Anyone outdo me?

Comment author: MichaelHoward 16 December 2010 12:10:58PM 6 points [-]

That's quite a lot. Can you tell us what the estimate was?

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