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katydee comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong
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I was in some discussion at SIAI once and made an estimate that ended up being off by something like three hundred trillion orders of magnitude. (Something about giant look-up tables, but still.) Anyone outdo me?
Surely declaring "x is impossible", before witnessing x, would be the most wrong you could be?
I take more issue with the people who incredulously shout "That's impossible!" after witnessing x.
I don't. You can witness a magician, e.g., violating conservation of matter, and still declare "that's impossible!"
Basically, you're stating that you don't believe that the signals your senses reported to you are accurate.