DuncanS comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong
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Particularly in the light of the fact that he seems to have got the numbers the wrong way round from what he intended in the final sentence.
Did he? I thought he just meant 'odds' when he said 'probability'.
No, no. The guy's worse mistake is not that. If he really thinks that a cell can be jigsawwed from individual proteins etc. and think of all the water and ions and stuff), in a single event, then the odds he gives are the odds of God getting the cell right.