# ata comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: 16 December 2010 09:09:42PM *  6 points [-]

I would say that according to my model (i.e. inside the argument (in this post's terminology)), it's not possible that that isn't true, but that I assign greater than 0% credence to the outside-the-argument possibility that I'm wrong about what's possible.

(A few relevant posts: How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3; But There's Still A Chance, Right?; The Fallacy of Gray)

Comment author: 16 December 2010 09:37:21PM 0 points [-]

How to Convince Me That 2 + 2 = 3

You can think for a moment, that 1024*10224=1048578. You can make an honest arithmetic mistake. More probable for bigger numbers, less probable for smaller. Very, very small for 2 + 2 and such. But I wouldn't say it's zero, and also not that the 0 is always excluded with the probability 1.

Exclusion of 0 and 1 implies, that this exclusion is not 100% certain. Kind of a probabilistic modus tollens.

Comment author: 16 December 2010 09:13:57PM *  0 points [-]

it's not possible that that isn't true

What is it that is true? (Just to clarify..)

Comment author: 16 December 2010 09:19:48PM -1 points [-]

This:

Probabilities of 1 and 0 are considered rule violations and discarded.

Discarding 0 and 1 from the game implies, that we have a positive probability - that they are wrongly excluded.