Perplexed comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: Perplexed 18 December 2010 05:22:55PM 0 points [-]

I've often seen similar proofs which are mathematically sound, but make certain assumptions about what it allowed, and are thus vulnerable to out-of-the-box solutions (Arrow's impossibility theorem is a good example of this).

You have piqued my curiosity. A trick to get around Arrow's theorem? Do you have a link?

Regarding your main point: Sure, If you want some members of your army of mutant rational agents to be so mutated that they are no longer even Bayesians, well ... go ahead. I suppose I have more faith in the rough validity of trial-and-error empiricism than I do in Bayes's theorem. But not much more faith.

Comment author: benelliott 18 December 2010 05:42:23PM 1 point [-]

I'm afraid I don't know how to post links.

I think there is already a main-page article on this subject, but the general idea is that Arrow's theorem assumes the voting system is preferential (you vote by ranking voters) and so you can get around it with a non-preferential system.

Range voting (each voter gives each candidate as score out of ten, and the candidate with the highest total wins) is the one that springs most easily to mind, but it has problems of its own, so somebody who knows more about the subject can probably give you a better example.

As for the main point, I doubt you actually put 100% confidence in either idea. In the unlikely event that either approach led you to a contradiction, would you just curl up in a ball and go insane, or abandon it.

Comment author: Perplexed 18 December 2010 05:48:22PM 1 point [-]

I'm afraid I don't know how to post links.

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