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wedrifid comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong
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That isn't the number to consider here. The relevant prior is "I'm in a simulation and this particular simulation involves the abracadabra trick". That number is quite a bit lower!
True enough. I estimate that I'd start testing after 4 or 5. :)
Yeah. Hmm. I don't really have a stable estimate of that probability. Of course, it's not like like I would have stopped after two trials, but at that point I'm poring myself a drink. Worth noting that by coming up with the hypothesis I drastically increased its probability and then by mentioning it here I increased it's probability even further.
Would you mind attempting to narrate any internal dialog you'd imagine yourself having after the 3rd? Lol.
"Um. WTF? Is this even working?"
(Yes, since the test is so trivial I might even click through a test after 2. I just wouldn't start suspecting modded sims.)