That isn't the number to consider here. The relevant prior is "I'm in a simulation and this particular simulation involves the abracadabra trick". That number is quite a bit lower!

Yeah. Hmm. I don't really have a stable estimate of that probability. Of course, it's not like like I would have stopped after two trials, but at that point I'm poring myself a drink. Worth noting that by coming up with the hypothesis I drastically increased its probability and then by mentioning it here I increased it's probability even further.

I estimate that I'd start testing after 4 or 5. :)

Would you mind attempting to narrate any internal dialog you'd imagine yourself having after the 3rd? Lol.