Luke_A_Somers comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: ArisKatsaris 16 December 2010 03:41:27PM 23 points [-]

Anthropic reasoning only goes this far. Even if I accept the silliness in which zillion of Earths are destroyed every year for each one that survives... the other planets in the solar system could also have been destroyed. And the stars and galaxies in the sky would all be devoured by now, no? And no anthropic reasons would prevent us from witnessing that from a safe distance.

Here's a fun game: Try to disprove the hypothesis that every single time someone says "Abracadabra" there's a 99.99% chance that the world gets destroyed.

Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 28 October 2011 03:29:49PM *  1 point [-]

Just the world? Well, all you need is a good rocket ship so you aren't on it anymore, and take a look.

If you mean destroy the MW branch in which it's said, then Nick Tarleton's answer works - that rule would make the choice to say 'Abracadabra' far smaller in probability than saying similar things that don't destroy the world. People saying that one thing would be greatly suppressed relative to, say, "Alakazam" or "Poof" or "Presto Change-o", and it would quickly leave the lexicon.

Comment author: dlthomas 28 October 2011 03:54:06PM 0 points [-]

Indeed - none of us would have ever heard it.