Romashka comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (174)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: DuncanS 16 December 2010 08:43:56PM 1 point [-]

In order for a single cell to live, all of the parts of the cell must be assembled before life starts. This involves 60,000 proteins that are assembled in roughly 100 different combinations. The probability that these complex groupings of proteins could have happened just by chance is extremely small. It is about 1 chance in 10 to the 4,478,296 power. The probability of a living cell being assembled just by chance is so small, that you may as well consider it to be impossible. This means that the probability that the living cell is created by an intelligent creator, that designed it, is extremely large. The probability that God created the living cell is 10 to the 4,478,296 power to 1.

Note that someone just gave a confidence level of 10^4478296 to one and was wrong. This is the sort of thing that should never ever happen. This is possibly the most wrong anyone has ever been.

Particularly in the light of the fact that he seems to have got the numbers the wrong way round from what he intended in the final sentence.

Comment author: Romashka 07 December 2014 04:17:57PM *  -1 points [-]

No, no. The guy's worse mistake is not that. If he really thinks that a cell can be jigsawwed from individual proteins etc. and think of all the water and ions and stuff), in a single event, then the odds he gives are the odds of God getting the cell right.