Wes_W comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: Wes_W 29 December 2014 04:49:37PM 1 point [-]

That's an important and non-obvious assumption to make.

Yes, I agree.

I'm much more sympathetic to the 10^-90 estimate in the paper than Gelman's quote is; I think he misrepresents the authors in claiming they asserted that probability, when actually they offered it as a conditional (if you model it this way, then it's 10^-90).