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Luke_A_Somers comments on Confidence levels inside and outside an argument - Less Wrong

129 Post author: Yvain 16 December 2010 03:06AM

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Comment author: Luke_A_Somers 16 January 2017 10:04:48PM 0 points [-]

Looking back over ancient posts, I saw this. I upvoted it earlier, and am leaving that, but I'd like to quibble with one thing:

this unnamed and possibly non-existent theory is less Kolmogorov-complex and hence more posterior-probable than the one that scientists are currently using

I think the bigger issue would be 'this unnamed and possibly non-existent theory is an accurate description of reality'. If it's more Kolmogorov-complex, so be it, that's the universe's prerogative. Increasing the Kolmogorov complexity decreases only our prior for it; it won't change whether it is the case.