knb comments on Link: "A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange" - Less Wrong
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This case may also turn out to be a good way of calibrating a person's predictions.
Right now people are throwing out a lot of predictions, ranging those who think, on one extreme:
To the other extreme:
Of course there are other theories, for example, that the plot had no USG involvement, and is just a case of angry ex-lovers seeking revenge against an innocent man.
This is my strongly preferred theory. (But I might quibble about calling the other party in a one-night stand a lover.)