knb comments on Link: "A Bayesian Take on Julian Assange" - Less Wrong

8 Post author: ata 16 December 2010 03:20AM

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Comment author: knb 16 December 2010 03:48:43AM 1 point [-]

This case may also turn out to be a good way of calibrating a person's predictions.

Right now people are throwing out a lot of predictions, ranging those who think, on one extreme:

  1. Assange is guilty as charged.
  2. The prosecutors have evidence to proceed against Assange
  3. The US government had nothing to do with it.
  4. They aren't going to try to have him extradited to the US/no charges will be brought

To the other extreme:

  1. Assange was entrapped by a US government (probably CIA) plot
  2. The charges against Assange are totally specious, any sex was entirely consensual
  3. Right now, there is a grand jury meeting in Alexandria, Virginia, to try to charge and extradite Assange to the US.
  4. The Swedish prosecutors know they have no viable evidence, but want him held in jail until the US extradition can go through.

Of course there are other theories, for example, that the plot had no USG involvement, and is just a case of angry ex-lovers seeking revenge against an innocent man.

Comment author: Vaniver 16 December 2010 06:22:26AM 0 points [-]

Of course there are other theories, for example, that the plot had no USG involvement, and is just a case of angry ex-lovers seeking revenge against an innocent man.

This is my strongly preferred theory. (But I might quibble about calling the other party in a one-night stand a lover.)