shokwave comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (100)
It seems like building a bet that only a Bayesian system wouldn't get Dutch-booked on might be possible.
Hmm. What exactly do you mean?
Nevermind. I had it in mind that un-dutch-bookability was a property of perfect Bayesianism alone - so that in the way that all other methods are approximations of Bayes, plus or minus some constant, or restricted in some way, these departures from Bayes would open up non-Bayes systems to some incorrect calculation of probabilities, and so it would be possible to set up a situation where their calculation departs from Bayes in a systematic way, and then set up a Dutch book diachronically. It seems like you might be able to do this for frequentism, but it turns out that there are other, non-Bayes systems that are immune to Dutch books as well.