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taw comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong
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If you say that then you're conceding the point, because Y is nothing other than the conjunction of a carefully chosen subset of the trivial statements comprising Z, re-ordered so as to give a proof that can easily be followed.
Figuring out how to reorder them requires mathematical knowledge, a special kind of knowledge that can be generated, not just through contact with the external world, but through spending computer cycles on it.
Yes. It's therefore important to quantify how many computer cycles and other resources are involved in computing a prior. There is a souped-up version of taw's argument along those lines: either P = NP, or else every prior that is computable in polynomial time will fall for the conjunction fallacy.