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AlephNeil comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Jack 21 December 2010 04:55AM

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Tags: bayesian epistemology decision introductions theory

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Comment author: AlephNeil 21 December 2010 06:57:07PM 0 points [-]

Subjective Bayesian does believe many statements of kind P(simple math step) = 1, P(X|conjunction of simple math steps) = 1, and yet P(X) < 1.

Well, they can wriggle out of this by denying P(simple math step) = 1, which is why I introduced this variation.

Comment author: taw 26 December 2010 12:34:15PM 0 points [-]

Well, they can wriggle out of this by denying P(simple math step) = 1

Doesn't this imply you'd be willing to accept P(2+2=5) on good enough odds?

This might be pragmatically a reasonable thing to do, but if you accept that all math might be broken, you've already given up any hope of consistency.