Will_Sawin comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Jack 21 December 2010 04:55AM

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Comment author: taw 21 December 2010 05:33:36PM 0 points [-]

How, exactly, to deal with logical uncertainty is an unsolved problem, no?

Your choice is either accepting that you will be sometimes inconsistent, or accepting that you will sometimes answer "I don't know" without providing a specific number, or both.

There's nothing wrong with "I don't know".

It's not clear why it's more of a problem for Bayesian than anyone else.

For Perfect Bayesian or for Subjective Bayesian?

Subjective Bayesian does believe many statements of kind P(simple math step) = 1, P(X|conjunction of simple math steps) = 1, and yet P(X) < 1.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 21 December 2010 07:27:57PM 0 points [-]

it does not believe math statements with probability 1 or 0 until it investigates them. As soon as it investigates whether (X|conjunction of simple math steps) is true and determines the answer, it sets P(X)=1.