Eliezer_Yudkowsky comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Jack 21 December 2010 04:55AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (100)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Eliezer_Yudkowsky 21 December 2010 07:56:28PM 1 point [-]

Logical uncertainty is an open problem, of course (I attended a workshop on it once, and was surprised at how little progress has been made).

But so far as Dutch-booking goes, the obvious way out is 2 with the caveat that the probability distribution never has P(X) < (PX&Y) at the same time, i.e., you ask it P(X), it gives you an answer, you ask it P(X&Y), it gives you a higher answer, you ask it P(X) again and it now gives you an even higher answer from having updated its logical uncertainty upon seeing the new thought Y.

It is also clear from the above that taw does not comprehend the notion of subjective uncertainty, hence the notion of logical uncertainty.

Comment author: Jack 21 December 2010 09:00:53PM 0 points [-]

attended a workshop on it once, and was surprised at how little progress has been made

Have any ideas?