JGWeissman comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (100)
P(X) < P(X and Y) gives you a dutch book.
OH I SEE. Revelation.
You can get pwn'd if the person offering you the bets knows more than you. The only defense is to, when you're uncertain, have bets such that you will not take X or you will not take -X (EDIT: Because you update on the information that they're offering you a bet. I forgot that. Thanks JG.). This can be conceptualized as saying "I don't know"
So yeah. If you suspect that someone may know more math than you, don't take their bets about math.
Now, it's possible to have someone pre-commit to not knowing stuff about the world. But they can't pre-commit to not knowing stuff about math, or they can't as easily.
Another defense is updating on the information that this person who knows more than you is offering this bet before you decide if you will accept it.