handoflixue comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Jack 21 December 2010 04:55AM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (100)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: handoflixue 22 December 2010 12:18:44AM 1 point [-]

It would seem that something is "Dutch Bookable" so long as the sum of probabilities doesn't add up to 1, which should not be a very difficult task at all.

I'm hoping this helps you clarify the question, since I feel like this answer probably doesn't actually address your intent :)

Comment author: Will_Sawin 22 December 2010 12:36:30AM 2 points [-]

Well, depends on if the probabilities overlap. So:

P(A)=.5 P(A&B)=.1 P(&~B)=.2

is Dutch-Bookable

It seems closer to the solvability of a system of linear equations. Depends on what kind of probabilities you get? Like if you have

P(A), p(B), p(C), p(A&B)=P(B&C)=P(A&C)=0, it's trivial.

But if you have

P(<equation whose satisfiability is unclear>)=1/4

then you've got trouble.

Comment author: [deleted] 22 December 2010 04:51:05AM 0 points [-]

Everyone's of course right. But it means I don't see a place for my train of thought to go.