Will_Sawin comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong

19 Post author: Jack 21 December 2010 04:55AM

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Comment author: Will_Sawin 22 December 2010 12:36:30AM 2 points [-]

Well, depends on if the probabilities overlap. So:

P(A)=.5 P(A&B)=.1 P(&~B)=.2

is Dutch-Bookable

It seems closer to the solvability of a system of linear equations. Depends on what kind of probabilities you get? Like if you have

P(A), p(B), p(C), p(A&B)=P(B&C)=P(A&C)=0, it's trivial.

But if you have

P(<equation whose satisfiability is unclear>)=1/4

then you've got trouble.