Sewing-Machine comments on Dutch Books and Decision Theory: An Introduction to a Long Conversation - Less Wrong
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Comments (100)
It's NP-hard. Here's a reduction from the complement problem of 3SAT: let's say you have n clauses of the form (p and not-q and r), i.e., conjunctions of 3 positive or negated atoms. Offer bets on each clause that cost 1 and pay n+1. The whole book is Dutch iff the disjunction of all the clauses is a propositional tautology.
I've written some speculations about what this might mean. The tentative title is "Against the possibility of a formal account of rationality":
http://cs.stanford.edu/people/slingamn/philosophy/against_rationality/against_rationality.pdf
I really like the Less Wrong community's exposition of Bayesianism so I'd be delighted to have feedback!
Can I just take a second to boast about this.