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JoshuaZ comments on Cryptographic Boxes for Unfriendly AI - Less Wrong
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I think we've had this very discussion before :)
Well, we had it about P ?= NP. So how much does your confidence go down for the stronger claim?
Significantly. Its very hard to put probabilities on this sort of thing, but I'd take a bet if the odds were... 100:1? I don't know if I would take significantly worse odds. My brain doesn't handle either small probabilities or epistemic uncertainty very well.
Hmm, that's very interesting. I'm surprised that the estimates aren't closer together. My own estimate for the existence of provably secure homomorphic encryption given that P != NP is very high, around, .75. So it seems that you much more strongly believe that P !=NP but are much less comfortable given that P !=NP assigning a high probability to the existence of homomorphic encryption.
Best to be careful with the term "provably secure" - since "provable security" is a technical term with a rather counter-intuitive meaning.