cata comments on A fun estimation test, is it useful? - Less Wrong

5 Post author: mwengler 20 December 2010 09:09PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (49)

You are viewing a single comment's thread.

Comment author: cata 20 December 2010 11:26:24PM *  4 points [-]

I got eight out of ten. I thought that the Pacific coastline was much shorter (but I was imagining it as basically a smooth curve, and terminating it at the Bering Strait and somewhere down near India -- is that how they measured it, I wonder?), and I thought blue whales were much less heavy. Now I have to go find out how something that weighs 190 tons manages to propel itself!

I was surprised by one particular aspect of the blog comments; the recurring theme of "I don't think it's valuable to make estimates like this, because if I ever gave a project estimate of 'two to twenty weeks' I would be laughed out of the room."

What do you mean, you would be laughed out? If you're 90% confident that it's two to twenty weeks, then you should feel OK about saying so -- that's better than confidently saying "five weeks" and watching it turn out to be twenty! At least it should be better. It's a shame if people feel compelled to whitewash guesses like that to save face.