= 27d567bc2d48d9f40e9ccc20ea370b15)
Normal_Anomaly comments on A fun estimation test, is it useful? - Less Wrong
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
= 783df68a0f980790206b9ea87794c5b6)
Loading…= b715d02e85f7b3b4ae65ca3d3e450868)
Subscribe to RSS Feed
Powered by Reddit
= f037147d6e6c911a85753b9abdedda8d)
You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.
Comments (49)
I got 5 right, and was off by 1 degree of latitude on the Shanghai one. I kinda knew I was nowhere near 90% confidence, because 5 of my estimates spanned 2 or more orders of magnitude and I wanted them to be at least somewhat meaningful.
I am still of the opinion, though, that if I think an estimate spanning two or more orders of magnitude (as some of mine did in this test -- that's the only way I was able to get them all right) would be considered meaningless/badly received, it's better to say "I don't know" than claim accuracy I know I don't have.
Saying the weight of the heaviest whale is "somewhere between 1 and 1000 tons" is just a nerdy and technical way of saying "I have no frickin' idea".
Not ironically, there are ancient posts from Elizier and Robin concerning exactly this: "I Don't Know." and "You Are Never Entitled to Your Opinion"
Actually I found the exercise interesting for that reason. On most of them I had what I considered no idea, but the requirement to get actual numbers forced me to clarify just what the limits on "don't know" were. (Only one I got wrong by its standards was the Pacific coastline one. I did the area/volume ones by starting by estimating the size of Connecticut...)
Definitely. In the real world, if somebody had asked me the length of the Pacific coastline or the number of books published in the US, I would say I had no clue. I do like this test even though I'm kvetching about it, it's interesting and maybe useful.