taw comments on A fun estimation test, is it useful? - Less Wrong

5 Post author: mwengler 20 December 2010 09:09PM

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Comment author: taw 21 December 2010 11:37:29AM 0 points [-]

8 out of 10.

I got area of Asia wrong in an interesting way. My estimated area of Asia to area of Earth was correct. My estimated area of Earth was wrong because I misremembered the formula for computing sphere surface from sphere diameter.

I got Pacific very wrong by essentially estimating length of extremely smoothed coastline, not real one.

Both were clear cases of overconfidence.

Things I was fully aware I knew very little about like Great Lakes or numbers of books published, I gave suitably wide ranges, and hit both correctly.