Emile comments on A fun estimation test, is it useful? - Less Wrong

5 Post author: mwengler 20 December 2010 09:09PM

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Comment author: Emile 21 December 2010 03:14:54PM 0 points [-]

If I got 9 right and someone else got all 10 right and gave narrower ranges than I did, I'd say he's probably better at estimating than I am.

Comment author: FAWS 21 December 2010 04:38:15PM 0 points [-]

Better discrimination, but worse calibration (probably, low confidence since it's only a single data point).

Comment author: ArisKatsaris 21 December 2010 03:30:00PM 0 points [-]

He'd better at estimating the answers themselves, but he'd be worse at estimating his ability to estimate.

Comment author: mwengler 21 December 2010 05:21:32PM 2 points [-]

To be fair, 90% confidence means 90% on average. From one test like this, I'm not sure you could conclude much difference in ability to estimate or synthesize confidence levels between people who score 8, 9, and 10. Indeed, because of the gaming ability for picking 9 with -inf to inf bounds and one with tight bounds to force a 9, I would weight a 10 achieved with tighter bounds as better at confidence estimation as a 9 achieved with wildly different or generally wider confidence bounds.