Comment on Solve Psy-Kosh's non-anthropic problem

Tue, 21 Dec 2010 00:53:03 GMT

Imagine I have two sacks of marbles, one containing 9 black and 1 white, the other containing 1 black and 9 white. I flip a fair coin to choose one of the sacks, and offer you to draw a marble from it. Now, if you draw a black marble, you must update to 90% credence that I picked the first sack.

The marbles problem has a clear structure where you have 20 possible worlds of equal probability. There is no corresponding structure with 20 possible worlds in our problem.

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