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Vladimir_Nesov comments on Solve Psy-Kosh's non-anthropic problem - Less Wrong
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I don't understand your comment. There is no anthropic reasoning and no filtered evidence involved. Everyone gets told their status, deciders and non-deciders alike.
Imagine I have two sacks of marbles, one containing 9 black and 1 white, the other containing 1 black and 9 white. I flip a fair coin to choose one of the sacks, and offer you to draw a marble from it. Now, if you draw a black marble, you must update to 90% credence that I picked the first sack. This is a very standard problem of probability theory that is completely analogous to the situation in the post, or am I missing something?
Sorry, I'm just being stupid, always need more time to remember the obvious (and should learn to more reliably take it).
Edit: On further reflection, the intuition holds, although the lesson is still true, since I should try to remember what the intuitions stand for before relying on them.
Edit 2: Nope, still wrong.