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cousin_it comments on Solve Psy-Kosh's non-anthropic problem - Less Wrong
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There is. First there's a fair coinflip, then either 1 or 9 deciders are chosen randomly. This means you receive either a black or a white marble, with exactly the same probabilities as in my analogy :-)
Very interesting. So probability estimate is correct, and acausal control exerted by the possible decisions somehow manages to exactly compensate the difference in the probability estimates. Still need to figure out what exactly is being controlled and not counted by CDT.