Vulture comments on Solve Psy-Kosh's non-anthropic problem - Less Wrong
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This seems to be the correct answer, but I'm still not sure how to modify my intuitions so I don't get confused by this kind of thing in the future. The key insight is that a group of fully coordinated/identical people (in this case the 9 people who guess the coin outcome) can be effectively treated as one once their situation is permanently identical, right?