paulfchristiano comments on Motivating Optimization Processes - Less Wrong
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Yes, it is already the part we suspect will be difficult. The other part may or may not be difficult once we solve that part.
No, you still haven't started to suspect that.
Also, moving this post to the Discussion section.
A long time ago you described what you perceived as the difficulties for FAI:
I know that was a long time ago, but people here still link to it, presumably because they don't know of any more up to date statement with similar content. Hopefully you can see why I was confused about which part of this problem was supposed to be hard. I now see that I probably misinterpreted it, but the examples which come directly afterwards reaffirm my incorrect interpretation.
So would it be fair to say that figuring out how to build a good paperclipper, as opposed to a process that does something we don't understand, already requires solving the hard part?
Either my views changed since that time, or what I was trying to communicate by it was that 3 was the most inscrutable part of the problem to people who try to tackle it, rather than that it was the blocker problem. 1 is the blocker problem, I think. I probably realize that now to a greater degree than I did at that time, and probably also made more progress on 3 relative to 1, but I don't know how much my opinions actually changed (there's some well-known biases about that).
Current estimate says yes. There would still be an inscrutable problem to solve too, but I don't think it would have quite the same impenetrability about it.
Would it be fair to say that even developing a formalism which is capable of precisely expressing the idea that something is a good paperclipper is significantly beyond current techniques, and that substantial progress on this problem probably represents substantial progress towards FAI?
Yes.