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Nornagest comments on Efficient Charity: Do Unto Others... - Less Wrong
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I wonder if getting too focused on the best (or worst) case scenario is a named logical error.
I'm also not sure whether giving a rare blood type is likely to save more lives than giving a more common blood type.
I know pretty much nothing about the mechanics of saving and donating blood, but I'd expect logistical effects to push demand for rare types up even if the actual need for them is proportional to their rarity.