Marius comments on Efficient Charity: Do Unto Others... - Less Wrong

130 Post author: Yvain 24 December 2010 09:26PM

You are viewing a comment permalink. View the original post to see all comments and the full post content.

Comments (318)

You are viewing a single comment's thread. Show more comments above.

Comment author: Marius 25 December 2010 01:39:51PM *  26 points [-]

I happen to administer a lot of blood to my patients, so let me answer some of the factual questions.

  1. The way they calculate "up to 3 lives" is in the most trivial way: blood you donate is fractionated into red cells, plasma, and platelets. Each of those may go to a different recipient.

  2. All blood administered to patients comes from voluntary, uncompensated donations. Plasma used in research studies may be compensated, but may not be transfused. This is the most important factor keeping our blood supply safe, and is far more effective than laboratory testing alone.

  3. Given that blood banks need to keep a sufficient store of blood available of each type, rarer blood types are generally in greater need than, say, A After all, a larger proportion of blood of those types must be discarded. O blood is obviously highly useful in trauma situations, and is therefore in high demand as well.

  4. The distribution of donors' and recipients' blood types should not be assumed to be equal: people with blood type A are significantly more likely to donate than people with blood type B. This exacerbates the discrepancies due to point 3.

  5. The number of lives saved can be calculated in two ways:

a. the feel-good way. Every time a physician gives a unit of blood to a patient e does so believing it is a life-saving procedure. So if 3 units are given the patient's life was saved 3 times in rapid succession. (You have to be willing to save a life multiple times, because that's the analysis we're using for the rest of this discussion: multiple mosquito nets saved the same kid's life multiple times over his lifetime; that same kid was then saved by anti-diarrheal treatments; etc. The same analysis belongs here). Now, we subtract the number of patients who die, but that's a small number. So 26 million transfusions/16 million donations = 1.6 lives saved per donation.

b. the marginal way. Donations are currently sufficient for usage; we benefit in three ways from more donations. First, we can be slightly more profligate with trauma patients who have a low survival chance; this saves a minimal number of lives. Second, fresher blood is associated with better outcomes than older blood; the extent of this effect is unknown but is an area of current research interest. The calculation would have to look at the likelihood that your donation reduced the average shelf age of the blood being administered times the survival improvement from the fresher blood. Third, blood from multiparous women is associated with ARDS; an increase in donation would allow us to stop using it.

Comment author: datadataeverywhere 25 December 2010 02:02:48PM 4 points [-]

Thanks, this is exceptionally informative.

I didn't realize that donations were sufficient for usage. Is this barely maintained by calling people when blood supplies are low, or does blood regularly get thrown out, or is there some other reason that supplies closely match need?

Comment author: Marius 25 December 2010 05:34:31PM 6 points [-]

A combination of the above. We have a core group of donors who can be called in emergency situations, we increase the intensity of blood drives when supplies are low, we reduce marginally-beneficial uses of blood when supplies become low, and we are better able to discard the oldest least-effective blood whenever supplies increase.

We are likely to face challenges in meeting future need. The cohort that most regularly donates blood is aging...

Comment author: [deleted] 25 December 2010 07:46:15PM 0 points [-]

We are likely to face challenges in meeting future need. The cohort that most regularly donates blood is aging...

I'm assuming you are from the US, do you think the same is true for other countries? Also which demographic are you referring too?

Comment author: wedrifid 25 December 2010 08:24:16PM 3 points [-]

I'm assuming you are from the US, do you think the same is true for other countries? Also which demographic are you referring too?

I'm more interested in the cohort that isn't aging. What is their secret? A new and improved Calorie Restricted diet? Perhaps that explains their inability to generate sufficient excess blood for donation.

Comment author: Will_Sawin 25 December 2010 09:28:03PM 2 points [-]

They could also be brain uploads, which would also explain the inability.

Comment author: wedrifid 25 December 2010 09:58:43PM 2 points [-]

Good point. I wonder if they would consider donating CPU time instead!