Will_Sawin comments on Efficient Charity: Do Unto Others... - Less Wrong
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Expected-utility calculation already takes that into effect. Uncertainty about whether an action will be beneficial translates into a lower expected utility. Discounting, on top of that, is double counting.
Knowledge is a fact about probabilities, not utilities.
Let's hope our different intuitions are resolvable.
Surely it's not much more difficult than caring about a person who your choices will dramatically change?