JGWeissman comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: JGWeissman 18 January 2011 03:49:20AM 7 points [-]

SPR's sound a lot like the Outside View.

Comment author: shokwave 18 January 2011 04:19:29AM 3 points [-]

SPRs sound like a method to ensure a very accurate outside view.

Comment author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:55:46AM * 3 points [-]

Oh yes. Added.

'Outside view', I believe, is a term of Kahneman's, and is used in the literature by lots of these people who work on SPRs, for example Dawes.

Kahneman begins his Edge.org master class on thinking by discussing the outside view.