Psy-Kosh comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong
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Now THAT part is just plain embarrassing. I mean, it's truly a mark of shame upon us if we have a tool that we know works, we are given access to the tool, and we still can't do better than the tool itself, unaided. (EDIT: By "we", I mean "the experts in the relevant fields"... which I guess isn't really a "we" as such, but you know what I mean)
Anyways, are there any nice online indexes or whatever of SPRs that make it easy to put in class of problem and have it find a SPR that's been verified to work for that sort of problem?
Coincidentally, I was planning to write an article "defending" the use of fallacies on Bayesian grounds. A typical passage would go like this:
Well, it seems we actually do live in such a world, where (some classes of) experts make predictable errors, and don't take trivial steps to make their opinions more accurate (and entangled with the subject matter).
Well, experts still do better than non-experts on average (afaik), just that they seem to totally ignore tools that could let them do a whole lot better, and also apparently can't do much better than the tools themselves, even when they're able to use the tools.
Making predictable errors isn't the same thing as their opinions being anti-correlated with reality.