shokwave comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: Miller 18 January 2011 05:50:50AM 1 point [-]

Irrelevant is excessive. When you say 'system A works better than system B' this implies that system A should be used and this is clear cut. But the notion 'works better' lacks a rigorous definition. Is the machine better if it wins 90% of the time by 5%, and fails the other 10% by 40%? It's not as simple as saying .9 * .05 > .1 * .4. The cost of error isn't necessarily linear.

Now why these systems aren't used in ensembles with humans is indeed a great question. I can imagine that in most cases we could also ask 'why don't we double the number of experts who are collaborating on a given problem?' under the presumption that more minds would likely result in a better performance across the board. I wouldn't be surprised if there was a lot of overlap in the answers. Coordination difficulty is likely high up there. Thus,

consider the fact that even when experts are given the results of SPRs, they still can't outperform those SPRs

possibly becomes the explanation.

Comment author: shokwave 18 January 2011 06:31:44AM *  2 points [-]

Keep in mind this is in the conclusion of lukeprog's post:

When there exists a reliable statistical prediction rule for the problem you're considering

Now,

But the notion 'works better' lacks a rigorous definition. Is the machine better if it wins 90% of the time by 5%, and fails the other 10% by 40%? It's not as simple as saying .9 * .05 > .1 * .4. The cost of error isn't necessarily linear.

If the cost of error isn't linear, determine what function it follows, then use that function instead of a linear function to compare the relative costs, which will tell you which works better.

Irrelevant is excessive.

I stand by it. The post is saying, given that SPRs work, work better than experts, and don't fail where experts don't, we should use them instead of experts. Your points were that SPRs don't always work, tend not to work in border cases, and might fail in dangerous cases. The first point is only true in cases this post is not concerned with, the second is equally true of experts and SPRs, and the third is also equally true of experts and SPRs.