TheOtherDave comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: TheOtherDave 18 January 2011 01:49:29PM 6 points [-]

People are good at picking out the right predictor variables ... People are bad at integrating information from diverse and incomparable sources.

That is a beautiful summary sentence, incidentally, and I am taking it with me as a shorthand "handle" for this whole idea.

I find it works well as a surface-level counter for the (alas, still inappropriately compelling) idea that a dumb algorithm can't get more accurate results than a smart observer.

Comment author: DSimon 18 January 2011 03:46:31PM 2 points [-]

Another possible metaphor is the pocket calculator.

It can find a number for any expression you can put into it, and in most cases it can do it way faster and more accurately than a human could. However, that doesn't make it a replacement for a human. An intelligent agent like a human is still needed for the crucial part of figuring out what expression would be meaningful to put into it.

Comment author: handoflixue 18 January 2011 09:49:10PM 0 points [-]

That is a very helpful metaphor for wrapping my head around both the advantages and limitations of SPR, thank you! :)