JoshuaZ comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong
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Coincidentally, I was planning to write an article "defending" the use of fallacies on Bayesian grounds. A typical passage would go like this:
Well, it seems we actually do live in such a world, where (some classes of) experts make predictable errors, and don't take trivial steps to make their opinions more accurate (and entangled with the subject matter).
Making predictable errors isn't the same thing as their opinions being anti-correlated with reality.