lukeprog comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 07:14:46PM *  7 points [-]

Cool, I'll look into these points.

I made one small change so far. The above article now read: "Reaction from the wine-tasting industry to such wine-predicting SPRs has been 'somewhere between violent and hysterical.'"

Also, I'll post links to the specific papers when I have time to visit UCLA and grab them.

Psychology is not my field, but my understanding is that the 'interview effect' for unstructured interviews is a very robust finding across many decades. For more, you can listen to my interview with Michael Bishop. But hey, maybe he's wrong!

Update 1: If I read the 1995 study correctly, they judged the accuracy of wine tasters by comparing the price of immature wines to those of mature wines, but I'm not sure. The way I phrased that is from Bishop & Trout, and that is how Bishop recalls it, though it's been several years now since he co-wrote Epistemology and the Psychology of Human Judgment.