Dr_Manhattan comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: Dr_Manhattan 18 January 2011 09:17:54PM 5 points [-]

Sometimes, being rational is easy. When there exists a reliable statistical prediction rule for the problem you're considering, you need not waste your brain power trying to make a careful judgment.

Unfortunately linear models for a lot of situations are simply not available. The dozen or so ones in the literature are the exception, not the rule.

Comment author: matt 26 January 2011 08:49:21PM 0 points [-]

And those that exist are not always easy to find.
And those that are found are not always easy to use in industry (where sophisticated computer skills are often the things the marketing grad taught erself to do in Excel).