Quirinus_Quirrell comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: Quirinus_Quirrell 19 January 2011 02:16:15AM *  9 points [-]

That doesn't close the loophole, it adds a constraint. And it's only significant for those who both hire enough people to be vulnerable to statistical analysis of their hiring practices, and receive too many bad applicants from protected classes. If it is a significant constraint, you want to find that out from the data, not from guesswork, and apply the minimum legally acceptable correction factor.

Besides, it's not like muggles are a protected class. And if they were? Just keep them from applying in the first place, by building your office somewhere they can't get to. There aren't any legal restrictions on that.

Comment author: SilasBarta 21 January 2011 07:21:09PM *  16 points [-]

Besides, it's not like muggles are a protected class. And if they were? Just keep them from applying in the first place, by building your office somewhere they can't get to. There aren't any legal restrictions on that.

You joke, but the world [1] really is choking with inefficient, kludgey workarounds for the legal prohibition of effective employment screening. For example, the entire higher education market has become, basically, a case of employers passing off tests to universities that they can't legally administer themselves. You're a terrorist if you give an IQ test to applicants, but not if you require a completely irrelevant college degree that requires taking the SAT (or the military's ASVAB or whatever the call it now).

It feels so good to ban discrimination, as long as you don't have to directly face the tradeoff you're making.

[1] Per MattherW's correction, this should read "Western developed economies" instead of "the world" -- though I'm sure the phenomenon I've described is more general the form it takes in the West.

Comment author: MatthewW 21 January 2011 07:25:47PM 3 points [-]

You say 'the world', but it seems to me you're talking about a region which is a little smaller.

Comment author: GLaDOS 23 July 2011 02:07:06PM *  6 points [-]

I'm not sure the correction is that relevant. The US and the EU together make up about 40% of global GDP (PPP).

Several minor economies with nearly identical conditions and restrictions such as Canada, New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Norway, Switzerland ... add up to another 3% or so.Most states in Latin America have similar legal prohibitions as well, they are not as well enforced, but avoiding them still imposes costs. This is mentioning nothing of Japan or other developed East Asian economies (though to be fair losses are probably much smaller than the developed West and perhaps even Latin America).

The other half of the world's has a massive opportunity cost due to the mentioned half's described inefficiency. Converting this loss into number of lives or quality of life is a depressing exercise.

Fortunately that is only a problem if you care about humans.

Comment author: MatthewW 27 July 2011 08:06:33PM 3 points [-]

Well, I'm in the UK, and there's no law against using IQ-style tests for job applicants here. Is that really the case in the US? (I assume the "You're a terrorist" bit was hyperbole.)

Employers here still often ask for apparently-irrelevant degrees. But admission to university here isn't noticeably based on 'generic' tests like the SAT; it's mostly done on the grades from subject-specific exams. So I doubt employers are treating the degrees as a proxy for SAT-style testing.

Comment author: SilasBarta 21 January 2011 07:27:47PM 4 points [-]

Correction accepted.

Comment author: gwern 19 January 2011 03:08:00PM 5 points [-]

That doesn't close the loophole, it adds a constraint.

Yes, it does close the loophole. You say conceal the cause (intent to discriminate) and you can get away with as much effect (disproportionate exclusion) as you want. Except the law already specifies that the effect is punishable as well as the cause.

So now the best you can do, assuming the populations are equally competent and suited for the job, is 20% discrimination.

And of course, in the real world, populations usually differ in their suitability for the job. Blacks tend not to have as many CS degrees as whites, for example. So if you are an employer of CS degrees, you may not be able to get away with any discrimination before you have breached the 20% limit, and may need to discriminate against the non-blacks in order to be compliant.

Besides, it's not like muggles are a protected class.

I would suspect that if the US Muggle legal system had anything to say about it, they would be. If magical-ness is conferred by genes, then it's violating either the general racial guideline or it's violating recent laws (signed by GWB, IIRC) forbidding employer discrimination based on genetics (in the context of genome sequencing, true, but probably general). If it's not conferred by genes, then there may be a general cultural basis on which to sue (Muggles as disabled because they lack an ability necessary for basic functioning in Wizarding society, perhaps).

Comment author: topynate 19 January 2011 03:31:21PM 3 points [-]

You can put degree requirements on the job advertisement, which should act as a filter on applications, something that can't be caught by the 80% rule.

(Of course, universities tend to use racial criteria for admission in the US, something which, ironically, can be an incentive for companies to discriminate based on race even amongst applicants with CS degrees.)

Comment author: gwern 19 January 2011 03:46:17PM 2 points [-]

The 80% rule is only part of it. Again, racist requirements is an obvious loophole you should expect to have been addressed; you can only get away with a little covert discrimination if any.

From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disparate_impact#Unintentional_discrimination :

For example, a fire department requiring applicants to carry a 100 lb (50 kg) pack up three flights of stairs. The upper-body strength required typically has an adverse impact on women. The fire department would have to show that this requirement is job-related for the position. This typically requires employers to conduct validation studies that address both the Uniform Guidelines and professional standards.

If you add unnecessary requirements as a stealth filter, how do you show the requirements are job-related?

Comment author: topynate 19 January 2011 04:03:17PM 1 point [-]

I thought we were talking about how to use necessary requirements without risking a suit, not how to conceal racial preferences by using cleverly chosen proxy requirements. But it looks like you can't use job application degree requirements without showing a business need either.

Comment author: Vladimir_M 20 January 2011 05:42:50PM *  7 points [-]

topynate:

But it looks like you can't use job application degree requirements without showing a business need either.

The relevant landmark case in U.S. law is the 1971 Supreme Court decision in Griggs v. Duke Power Co. The court ruled that not just testing of prospective employees, but also academic degree requirements that have disparate impact across protected groups are illegal unless they are "demonstrably a reasonable measure of job performance."

Now of course, "a reasonable measure of job performance" is a vague criterion, which depends on controversial facts as well as subjective opinion. To take only the most notable example, these people would probably say that IQ tests are a reasonable measure of performance for a great variety of jobs, but the present legal precedent disagrees. This situation has given rise to endless reams of of case law and a legal minefield that takes experts to navigate.

At the end, as might be expected, what sorts of tests and academic requirements are permitted to different institutions in practice depends on arbitrary custom and the public perception of their status. The de facto rules are only partly codified formally. Thus, to take again the most notable example, the army and the universities are allowed to use what are IQ tests in all but name, which is an absolute taboo for almost any other institution.

Comment author: gwern 19 January 2011 04:35:01PM 2 points [-]

I thought we were talking about how to use necessary requirements without risking a suit, not how to conceal racial preferences by using cleverly chosen proxy requirements.

I wasn't. I was talking about how the obvious loopholes are already closed or have been heavily restricted (even at the cost of false positives), and hence how Quirrel's comments are naive and uninformed.

But it looks like you can't use job application degree requirements without showing a business need either.

Yes, that doesn't surprise me in the least.

Comment author: Strange7 21 January 2011 06:57:59PM *  4 points [-]

Just keep them from applying in the first place, by building your office somewhere they can't get to. There aren't any legal restrictions on that.

You really are new here, aren't you?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Americans_with_Disabilities_Act_of_1990#Title_III_-_Public_Accommodations_.28and_Commercial_Facilities.29

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoning

In short, there most certainly ARE legal restrictions on building your office somewhere deliberately selected for it's inaccessibility to those with a congenital inability to e.g. teleport, and a lack of teleportation-specific case law would not work in your favor, given the judge's access to statements you've already made.

Comment author: Quirinus_Quirrell 22 January 2011 12:12:17AM 12 points [-]

In short, there most certainly ARE legal restrictions on building your office somewhere deliberately selected for it's inaccessibility to those with a congenital inability to e.g. teleport,

The Americans with Disabilities Act limits what you can build (every building needs ramps and elevators), not where you can build it. Zoning laws are blacklist-based, not whitelist-based, so extradimensional spaces are fine. More commonly, you can easily find office space in locations that poor people can't afford to live near. And in the unlikely event that race or national origin is the key factor, you get to choose which country or city's demographics you want.

A lack of teleportation-specific case law would not work in your favor, given the judge's access to statements you've already made.

This is the identity under which I speak freely and teach defense against the dark arts. This is not the identity under which I buy office buildings and hire minions. If it was, I wouldn't be talking about hiring strategies.

Comment author: [deleted] 26 January 2011 10:48:29AM *  5 points [-]

This is the identity under which I speak freely and teach defense against the dark arts. This is not the identity under which I buy office buildings and hire minions. If it was, I wouldn't be talking about hiring strategies.

Up voted for having the sense to employ a blindingly obvious strategy that somehow consistently fails to become common sense.

Comment author: Strange7 22 January 2011 01:37:22AM 0 points [-]

More commonly, you can easily find office space in locations that poor people can't afford to live near.

But that they could, in principle, walk to and from.

Comment author: Barry_Cotter 19 January 2011 02:17:16PM *  4 points [-]

Besides, it's not like muggles are a protected class. And if they were? Just keep them from applying in the first place, by building your office somewhere they can't get to. There aren't any legal restrictions on that.

My google-fu is not strong enough to find the legal doctrine, but in the US at least, you can be sued for ~implicit discrimination, i.e. if the newspaper you advertise in has a reader population that does not refelect the general population, you're discriminating against the under represented population.

Comment author: shokwave 19 January 2011 02:43:26PM 4 points [-]

i.e. if the newspaper you advertise in has a reader population that does not reflect the general population, you're discriminating against the under represented population.

...I thought this was a joke. Now... not so sure.

Comment author: Barry_Cotter 19 January 2011 03:11:35PM 0 points [-]