kybernetikos comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong

68 Post author: lukeprog 18 January 2011 03:19AM

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Comment author: kybernetikos 19 January 2011 05:32:18PM *  2 points [-]

A parole board considers the release of a prisoner: Will he be violent again?

I think this is the kind of question that Miller is talking about. Just because a system is correct more often, doesn't necessarily mean it's better.

For example if the human experts allowed more people out who went on to commit relatively minor violent offences and the SPRs do this less often, but are more likely to release prisoners who go on to commit murder then there would be legitimate discussion over whether the SPR is actually better.

I think this is exactly what he is talking about when he says

Where AI's compete well generally they beat trained humans fairly marginally on easy (or even most) cases, and then fail miserably at border or novel cases. This can make it dangerous to use them if the extreme failures are dangerous.

Whether or not there is evidence that says this is a real effect I don't know, but to address it what you really need to measure is total utility of outcomes rather than accuracy.

Comment author: Miller 19 January 2011 10:03:50PM 0 points [-]

Yes. You got it, exactly.