kybernetikos comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong
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Comments (195)
I think this is the kind of question that Miller is talking about. Just because a system is correct more often, doesn't necessarily mean it's better.
For example if the human experts allowed more people out who went on to commit relatively minor violent offences and the SPRs do this less often, but are more likely to release prisoners who go on to commit murder then there would be legitimate discussion over whether the SPR is actually better.
I think this is exactly what he is talking about when he says
Whether or not there is evidence that says this is a real effect I don't know, but to address it what you really need to measure is total utility of outcomes rather than accuracy.
Yes. You got it, exactly.