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DanielVarga comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong
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Read the Dawes pdf linked in the top post. I can't speak for the other examples, but that one is solid.
edit: my apologies, re-reading I see you discussed the marriage example. What is your opinion on the graduate rating and Hodgkin's disease examples?
Like Perplexed, I hated this paper. Of course, it has the very good excuse that it is from 1979. But in 2011, it is sort of expected that you evaluate your model on a second, independent dataset. (My models often crash and burn at this stage.) Did any of these studies do this?