tenshiko comments on Statistical Prediction Rules Out-Perform Expert Human Judgments - Less Wrong
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A significant problem is the weighting of certain courses, particularly Advanced Placement ones. A GPA of 3.7, seeming quite respectable to the unaware, can be obtained by work of quality 83%, and that's assuming the class didn't offer extra credit.
I don't think he is likely to hire programmers straight out of high school.
Giving IB/AP/Honors classes extra weight in high school is necessary to offset the additionally difficulty of these classes. Otherwise, high school students would have a direct disincentive to take advanced classes.
A swift googling brings up this forthcoming study of about 900 high schools in Texas:
But there's still the additional incentive of prestige and signalling, isn't there? That should be enough for the serious scholar. It's a significant problem when non-AP-labelled courses are often passed over for the purpose of a cheap grade boost.