Well, SPRs can plausibly outperform average expertise. That's because most of the expertise is utter and complete sham.

The recidivism in example...

The judges, or psychologists, or the like, what in the world makes them experts on predicting the criminals? Did they read an unbiased sample of recidivism? Did they do any practice, earning marks for predicting criminals? Anything?

Resounding no. They never in their lives did anything that should have earned them the expert status on this task. They did other stuff that puts them first on the list when you're looking for 'experts' on a topic for which there is no experts.

They are about as much experts on this task as a court janitor is an expert on law. He too did not do anything related to law, he did clean the courtroom.