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XiXiDu comments on Tallinn-Evans $125,000 Singularity Challenge - Less Wrong
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If you're going to do this sort of explicit decomposition at all, it's probably also worth thinking explicitly about the expected value of a donation. That is: how much does your .0001 estimate of SIAI's chance of preventing a humanity-destroying AI go up or down based on an N$ change in its annual revenue?
I feel that this deserves a direct answer. I think it is not just about money. The question would be, what would they do with it, would they actually hire experts? I will assume the best-case scenario here.
If the SIAI would be able to obtain a billion dollars I'd estimate the chance of the SIAI to prevent a FOOMing uFAI 10%.