Eugine_Nier comments on Alternative Places to Get Ideas (Also, "In Defense of Food") - Less Wrong

14 Post author: Raemon 26 December 2010 06:36PM

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Comment author: Eugine_Nier 27 December 2010 02:03:52AM *  2 points [-]

I suspect much of medicine especially the newer stuff is probably nearly as bad as nutrition.

Edit: See Robin Hanson's many posts on the subject.

Comment author: XFrequentist 27 December 2010 07:25:38PM 1 point [-]

Why especially the "newer stuff"?

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 27 December 2010 10:59:58PM 4 points [-]

The two most obvious reasons are:

1) Once the low-hanging fruit is exhausted, people are more likely to make stuff up.

2) Newer stuff has had less time for problems to get exposed.

Comment author: XFrequentist 28 December 2010 01:07:00AM 1 point [-]

Just curious, as I've heard the opposite asserted with confidence.

1) Very little of the Hansonian critique of medicine involves researchers making stuff up, and I doubt this is a major problem.

2) True, although hopefully research methodology is improving.

This analysis may interest you, I seem to recall it supports your suspicion.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 28 December 2010 02:13:52AM 2 points [-]

1) Very little of the Hansonian critique of medicine involves researchers making stuff up, and I doubt this is a major problem.

Sorry about that, I didn't meant more generate results based on statistical noise, then outright faking research.

Comment author: XFrequentist 28 December 2010 02:22:12AM 1 point [-]

Ah. Then yeah that's a problem, but I'm not sure why this would be worse with recent research.

This article gives a pretty good overview of the shortcomings of medical statistics, and includes one of my favorite lines ever:

Such sad statistical situations suggest that the marriage of science and math may be desperately in need of counseling. Perhaps it could be provided by the Rev. Thomas Bayes.

Comment author: Eugine_Nier 28 December 2010 04:49:33AM 3 points [-]

Ah. Then yeah that's a problem, but I'm not sure why this would be worse with recent research.

Because the earlier stuff, e.g., sanitation, vaccines, and antibiotics, had a stronger effect and thus was easier to notice above the noise.

Comment author: mwengler 01 January 2011 01:03:56AM 1 point [-]

And also the older stuff has been around long enough to get the bad results beaten out of it.